Frank Cotolo offers his picks for the $25,000 Pick-4 at Balmoral Park on March 3, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering Program.

Balmoral Park Pick-4, Races 10-13, Sunday, March 3, 2013

I like bad races, that is, I like poor fields in low classes and I like them as much as I hate them. They offer as much value, sometimes, as they present frustration from having to find hidden elements that make a horse a contender. So, when our Pick-4s from Crete present such races, we get bold and snobby at the same time, playing what we feel we have uncovered as overlays in groups of equines that do not decide if they will give it their all until the time to race arrives. Granted, this is a personal opinion but that is what handicapping is all about, anyway.

$2 play 2/7/4/4 = $2

Analysis:

Race 7: (2) She’sabadbelle launches this ticket with promise among the undependable, that is, in this rock-bottom claimer we usually find erratic types that make us shake our heads when the race is over. Her recent effort shows no moves but reveals an ability to take advantage of a good trip and among this group that could be the best edge available.

Race 8: In this race we opt to go for the horse on the way up, which is (7) Russell The Muscle. With only three starts and two wins, one of them including a bad early break and a three-wide move to win, he shines among these horses.

Race 9: (4) Iron Outlaw won at this level three back at 16-1 and then had two excuses while never budging in class. Still, he is not listed as a morning line choice here, which is good for us, since we are willing to toss those last two out and look for another win at a decent price from a legitimate contender.

Race 10: (4) Western Williow did not step up with flying colors but was not embarrassed either. It is important to note that her step-up loss was wholly supported by the public and she lost from the top with a horrible jump that defied any recovery for that mile. In her next out she made two moves, albeit short ones, but still has more promise among this group than those who still cannot win at this level.