Frank Cotolo offers his picks for the $20,000 Pick-4 at Balmoral Park on March 2, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering Program.

Balmoral Park Pick-4, Races 10-13, Saturday, March 2, 2013

Last weekend produced two winners, one on each ticket. Saturday we had our first single, Don’t Worry B Happy, win as a favorite (we did not expect that) and pay $5, which could not be wagered on our plan. The closest we got otherwise in the five-horse combo was a second in the final leg. On Sunday we hit to win with Justlivinthedream at $9.80. The rest of the ticket with only singles finished 5-4-3.

$2 play 9/1/5/47 = $4

Analysis:

Race 10: (9) Fort Silky leaves from post nine and that may give him a bit more of a win price than if he was inside. It is difficult to stack this ticket with possibilities and make the ticket front-heavy just because the best horse is in the nine hole.

Race 11: (1) Fox Valley Yukon makes the ticket, to this point, look as if we could share the pot with a lot of winners if we hit it. However, like the first leg, this single stands out, so why pack the second leg with “insurance?”

Race 12: (5) Becky B Skipalong changes the atmosphere because here we have a chance to knock some people out of the Pick-4 with a legitimate contender that may be overlooked. Having been claimed, the Cole Muffler mare looks raring to ignore any step up in class for her new owners and take this from mid pack. She doesn’t have to improve at all to beat this group, making the step up moot even without the positive element the claim brings to the table.

Race 13: (4) Bucks Luck has been steamrollered in two races, having to contend with an early duel and a terrible post in a return from a layoff that produced a fine qualifier. He will be a longshot, we are almost certain, and could save this ticket from the hands of others playing. (7) Look Ma No Hands would not make the ticket so valuable but may be ready to haul a victory over the mile as a moderate choice and we wouldn’t want to lose the entire bundle based on a sudden change of heart from a gelding that suddenly decided to have his picture taken in the winner’s circle after being a bridesmaid became a way of life.