Frank Cotolo offers his picks for the $20,000 Pick-4 at Balmoral Park on Saturday, Jan. 5, part of the USTA Strategic Wagering Program.

Balmoral Park Pick-4, Races 10-13, Saturday, Jan. 5, 2013

As promised, here is a rundown of how we ended the 2012 Balmoral campaign. We only wagered $118 on Pick-4s, using $2 combos. We did not hit any but with that measly amount we came extremely close twice with singles that paid double digits. The win side of the campaign also came up short but it made up for the $118. Playing only 4-1 or up horses that were on our Pick-4 tickets, we wagered $686. Our shortest win price was $10 and our largest was $28.60, giving us back $398.80. There were plenty of other winners below 4-1 on many tickets but passing them did not cause the deficit. Last year we hit about the same number but many of our win bets paid more. Certainly this was not a bad run and a total loss of $405 can be amortized with wins this year. So here we go, chins up, methods unchanged.

$2 play: 34/5/1/7 = $4

Analysis:

Race 10: (3) Bell Valley Bill returns to his best level where he whipped out three straight before meeting far tougher company. It is hard to believe his morning line is higher than the choice, Ice Scraper, but we will take that as a gift. (4) Sporty Gypsy should have won for us last week but his usual style is only good for cashing lesser-than-win checks. Perhaps today he changes his MO and comes out better in the class he loves.

Race 11: (5) Bring It On Kaajay will go for us again this week after a near strike that was thwarted by an early duel. He is in a great spot here and we have no trouble singling him.

Race 12: (1) Willow Gram had serious problems from start to finish last time when she dropped into a spot that should have overcome starting from the eight hole. That isn’t what got her into trouble but coming all the way inside this week is not going to hamper her, especially if she is steered to save ground and takes over very late without using cover.

Race 13: (7) Catmando is a contender and the kind that we like because his morning line and the history of his lack of support suggests he will be the overlooked entity. He was sitting on a win at 13-1 but the opening panel joust from the obvious competition here ruined the mile. It could be very different here.