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Cotolo's Contenders wrap-up: 2016 Dela
Thursday, September 22, 2016 - by Frank Cotolo

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Congratulations to the connections of Betting Line, easy winner of his elim heat and the final of the 2016 Little Brown Jug.

 

Thanks to the USTA for allowing me to open my wagering books and share the contents in these blogs again this year. A review of all of our suggested contenders is listed below, along with some facts concerning our total performance percentages.

 

Again this year, our focus on elim heats of the main event treated our bankroll well. We unsuccessfully tried to beat Betting Line in his elim heat (we were second with Lyons Snyder), but our enthusiasm for Western Fame in the second elim was fervent and rewarded us with one of the better “Jug”-event win prices, this particular one which paid a larger price to place then to win.

 

Most of the horses we endorsed were not public choices. Our top contenders had to be chosen to meet a press deadline. As it turned out, a number of the winners we speculated could produce strong winning prices turned out to be in the top two of the public’s choices. This is always a problem for us when we play the role of “public handicappers.” It doesn’t mean we are smarter than the public, though. We respect our greatest enemy, whose hit rate far exceeds ours.

In that respect, we always list exacta prices when our choice finishes second to a favorite. Those exactas can be boosted greatly when we have an outsider getting the second spot (as exemplified in Sept. 18’s Race 7 with 13-1 Banger L).

Here are some statistics, followed by a list of the results of our blog information from Sunday through Thursday. Thank you for reading.

This year we offered 29 horses. There were two scratches, leaving 27 in to race.
There were six winners for a 22-percent win average.
There were 13 horses finishing first, second (7) or third (1) for a 48 percent in-the-money average.
There were five seconds beaten by the favorite to complete exactas (see below for prices).

Here are the day-by-day results.

Sunday, Sept. 18
R1 Whosur Linda 8th; Auto Pilot 7th, Blue Bunnie 10th, Banger L 2nd, $11.80, $5.80 (Exacta with favorite $39.60); Big Package SCRATCHED; Barleys Angel 8th; Nobel Trick 10th

Monday, Sept. 19
R3 Miss Lorelei 2nd, $5.40, $6.00 ok; R6 Soft Power 1st $5.40, $5.00, $2.20; R8 Wishin Iwas Fishin 6th; R10 Evanora 1st $5.60, $3.60, $2.40; R11 Kerfuffle Cookie 2nd $3.80, $4.80 ok; R13 Kandy Krisp 7th.

Tuesday, Sept. 20
R4 Frank The Fish SCRATCHED; R6 Always A Good Time 4th; R9 Credit Fashion 5th; R11 Dangle Then Deke 1st $2.60, $2.40, $2.10

Wednesday, Sept. 21
R4 Notorious McGregor 2nd $2.60, $2.40 (Exacta with favorite $5.00); R5 Lionbacker Kidd 6th; R9 Honest Gambler 8th ; R10 Chim Swift 1st $11.00, $5.40, $4.00; R11 Blue Moon Stride 7th; R14 Fox Valley Shout 2nd $4.80, $3.80 (Exacta with favorite $17.40)

Thursday, Sept. 22
R2 Moonshiner Hanover 2nd $2.40, $2.10 (Exacta with favorite $5.20); R8 Primo Giovannia 4th; R9 My Tweed Heart 5th; R11 Blenheim 1st $13.40, $5.60, $4.00; R13 Lyons Snyder 2nd $3.00, $2.40 (Exacta with favorite paid $8.00); R14 Western Fame 1st $23.40, $30.60. No show wagering. 

We hope however you wagered this week we played some role in whatever success you attained.


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