USTA Home > News Home > Two big carryovers on Wednesday at Balmoral

Two big carryovers on Wednesday at Balmoral
Tuesday, December 17, 2013 - by Michael Antoniades, Balmoral Park racing analyst

       Decrease Text Size    Increase Text Size   Print   Email

Crete, IL --- Balmoral Park’s handle will get a giant boost this Wednesday (Dec. 18) because no bettor was able to select all four winners on the Sunday Pick-4 or the top five finishers in the ten cent High Five.

Both of these Wednesday wagers will now have guaranteed pools. The Wednesday Pick-4 pool will be seeded with a one day carryover of $28,237 and Balmoral Park, along with the United States Trotting Association, will guarantee a Pick-4 pool of $75,000.

With the low takeout of 15 percent, the Balmoral Pick-4 will offer the rarest of gambling opportunities, which is to play with a substantial gambling advantage. Simply speaking, the amount paid back to the winners will exceed the amount wagered on the bet if the final pool is less than $216,474.

Based on the extraordinary value of the bet, the Balmoral Pick-4 this Wednesday is from a statistical gamblers view one of the must plays of the year. The following example is based on a variety of final pools starting with the guaranteed final pool of $75,000.

Final Pick-4 pool-new money-net pool after takeout-players advantage
$75,000-46,763-67,985-plus 45.2%
$100,000-71,763-89,235-plus 24.3%
$125,000-96,763-110,485-plus 14.1%
$150,000-121,763-131,735-plus 8.1%
$175,000-146,763-152,985-plus 4.2%

Using the $75,000 guaranteed pool, you would have $67,985 returned to the winners after the 15 percent takeout even though they wagered only $46,763. This would create a surplus of $21,222 which would be added to pay off the winners. The $75,000 pool would create a players advantage of more than 45%. This statistical anomaly occurs with the combination of low takeout and a substantial amount of “dead” money in the pool.

Therefore we will go with an estimated pool of $125,000 which will still give the players a 14.1 percent advantage (see above chart). Clearly there is ample reason to believe that players will respond strongly to this wagering opportunity.

And that is not all. The ten cent High Five also has a one day carryover of $13,893. The USTA and Balmoral will offer a $40,000 guaranteed pool on the Wednesday Pentafecta which is also the final leg of the Pick-4. The Pick-4 is on the final four races and starts with race seven at approximately 9:15 p.m. (CST) and ends with the High Five finale on race ten at approximately 10:25 p.m.

Balmoral Park and Maywood Park, with the help of the USTA Strategic Wagering Program and TrackMaster offers free deluxe 12 race program pages for the Pick-4 and High Five on every racing night at www.ustrotting.com.


Related Articles :


Search Articles: