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Balmoral Pick 4 carryover creates rare advantage for players
Saturday, April 9, 2011 - by Michael Antoniades, Balmoral Park racing analyst

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On the heels of a wildly successful Pick 4 weekend, the Saturday Balmoral Park wager will get a large boost because no bettor was able to select all four winners on Wednesday. The Saturday pool will be seeded with a carryover of $9,790 and we estimate the final pool at $50,000.

With the low takeout of 15%, the Balmoral Pick 4 will offer that rare opportunity to play with an advantage. Simply speaking, the amount paid back to the winners will exceed the amount wagered on the bet if the final pool is less than $75,056.  Based on the extraordinary value of the bet, the Balmoral Saturday Pick 4 is the must play bet of the weekend. The following example is based on a final pool of $50,000.
 
Saturday Pick 4 wagers          $40,210
Add $9,790 carryover plus        $9,790       $50,000
subtract 15% take out minus    $6,031       $43,969
        
Players advantage        
$40,000  pool  plus               17.4 %
$50,000  pool  plus                 8.9 %
$60,000  pool  plus                 4.5 %
$70,000  pool  plus                 1.2 %
$75,056  pool                        EVEN

Using the $50,000 estimated pool, you would have $43,969 returned to the winners even though they wagered only $40,210. This would create a surplus of $3,759 which would be added to the winning payout. The $50,000 pool would create a players advantage of 8.9%.This scenario is created with low takeout and dead money in the pool.

With the help of the USTA Strategic Wagering program, Balmoral Park got off to a roaring start with the Pick 4 initiative. The one mile oval continues to trend up as Pick 4 pools doubled last weekend and helped push handle numbers up on the other races as well. Bettors wagered $2,470,583 on our 22 races last weekend, an average of $112,299 per race.

Free program pages for the Saturday and Sunday Pick 4 action are now available on the USTA handicapping page at ustrotting.com.


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